Just two months in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him for missing a pass in behind. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or a cause for the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. When the in-form star swept in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. The team continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their opening six matches, are somehow a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?
That’s a particularly tough question to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.
According to the data, twice all season have Villa posted an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a club which has strung together 10 in a row, they look strangely fragile – but at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their talisman to bail them out with some clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired in London, and again when facing the Red Devils.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition had more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Could it be a different scenario in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
